10.6084/m9.figshare.8159408.v1
Rodrigo S. Bergamin
Rodrigo S.
Bergamin
Vanderlei Debastiani
Vanderlei
Debastiani
Daiany C. Joner
Daiany C.
Joner
Priscila Lemes
Priscila
Lemes
Taís Guimarães
Taís
Guimarães
Rafael D. Loyola
Rafael
D. Loyola
Sandra C. Müller
Sandra C.
Müller
Loss of suitable climatic areas for <i>Araucaria</i> forests over time
Taylor & Francis Group
2019
Atlantic Forest domain
climatic fluctuations
ecological niche models
global warming
indicator species
2019-05-21 13:13:24
Journal contribution
https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Loss_of_suitable_climatic_areas_for_i_Araucaria_i_forests_over_time/8159408
<p><b>Background</b>: <i>Araucaria</i> forests are mountain ecosystems that might have expanded in the late Holocene, however past distributions remain uncertain. If current distribution reflects climatic conditions, past and future distributions may be projected using climate models.</p> <p><b>Aims</b>: To contribute to the understanding of past and future distribution of <i>Araucaria</i> forests as a function of climate, we hypothesised that (1) they have increased their geographic distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) until the present; and (2) would contract under predicted future climates.</p> <p><b>Methods</b>: We modelled the spatial distributions of <i>Araucaria</i> forests under current, past and future climatic scenarios. Ecological niche models of 12 indicator species were developed using ensemble modelling.</p> <p><b>Results</b>: The greatest extent of distribution of <i>Araucaria</i> forests appeared to have occurred during the LGM, after which a continuous retraction followed until the present. Our models suggested that <i>Araucaria</i> forests would experience an even greater retraction in the future.</p> <p><b>Conclusion</b>: <i>Araucaria</i> forests could have covered larger areas during the LGM than suggested by earlier palynological studies, because climate was suitable for their distribution. The degree of loss of modelled distribution area since the LGM until today indicate these forests are likely to continue to shrink under projected future climatic changes.</p>