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On the value of isotope-enabled hydrological model calibration

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journal contribution
posted on 2020-04-07, 13:45 authored by Tricia A. Stadnyk, T. L. Holmes

Calibration of hydrological models is challenging in high-latitude regions where hydrometric data are minimal. Process-based models are needed to predict future changes in water supply, yet often with high amounts of uncertainty, in part, from poor calibrations. We demonstrate the utility of stable isotopes (18O, 2H) as data employed for improving the amount and type of information available for model calibration using the isoWATFLOODTM model. We show that additional information added to calibration does not hurt model performance and can improve simulation of water volume. Isotope-enabled calibration improves long-term validation over traditional flow-only calibrated models and offers additional feedback on internal flowpaths and hydrological storages that can be useful for informing internal water distribution and model parameterization. The inclusion of isotope data in model calibration reduces the number of realistic parameter combinations, resulting in more constrained model parameter ranges and improved long-term simulation of large-scale water balance.

Funding

This research was funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), under the Collaborative Research and Development Grant CRDJ-462584-13, with support from industry [Manitoba Hydro, Grant No. G277C].

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