Spatial Discontinuities in Support for Hydraulic Fracturing: Searching for a “Goldilocks Zone”

Recent research suggests that those located closer to energy development are, on average, more supportive of this development. However, case studies in specific locations reveal additional nuance. In a case study of Bakken Shale residents, Junod et al. identified a “Goldilocks Zone” of unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) acceptance—an area on the periphery of development that is “just right” because residents feel close enough to receive economic benefits but far enough away to avoid negative impacts. We explore whether this Goldilocks Zone extends nationally by combining geocoded public opinion data (N = 23,154) with UOGD locations. Using multilevel regression modeling, we find that respondents located within 115 km of newly active UOGD are more supportive of hydraulic fracturing while those located within 115–305 km are comparatively less supportive. While we do not uncover a national-level Goldilocks Zone, our work highlights innovative approaches for examining spatial relationships in energy development opinion.