Hazardous air pollutant emissions implications under 2018 guidance on U.S. Clean Air Act requirements for major sources

On January 25, 2018, the United States Environmental Protection Agency withdrew a 1995 policy that mandates the use of maximum achievable control technology (MACT) to regulate emissions from major sources of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), a category of toxic chemicals that may be carcinogenic, mutagenic, or cause other adverse health effects. To better understand the implications and scope of the change in regulatory guidance for HAP emissions of major sources that may reclassify as area sources, the increase in emissions that could legally occur under the new policy is assessed here. Based on facility-level data from a 2014 HAP national emissions inventory, it is estimated that 70% of major sources of HAPs qualify for reclassification as area sources, which could result in a maximum of 35,030 tons per year (tpy) of additional HAP emissions if all sources successfully reclassified. This amount would nearly triple the total volume of HAPs that qualifying major sources emitted in 2014. On average, qualifying sources could emit individually an additional 18.4 tpy. In the 21 states and territories that follow only federal guidelines for controlling HAPs, it is more likely that the estimates presented here could materialize compared to states that have additional guidelines for area sources of HAPs. The quantitative analysis of the potential emission changes resulting from regulatory change is instructive for industry, state and federal decisionmakers, and interested members of the public looking to understand and anticipate how relevant stakeholders will be affected by this policy change.

Implications: Withdrawal of a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency policy that mandates the use of maximum achievable control technology (MACT) to regulate emissions from major sources of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) could result in higher emissions of toxic chemicals that may be carcinogenic, mutagenic, or cause other adverse health effects. Analysis of potential emission changes resulting from regulatory change is instructive for industry, state, and federal decisionmakers, and interested members of the public looking to understand and anticipate how relevant stakeholders will be affected by this policy change.