A computational approach to tracking age-based task frequency distributions of Apis mellifera worker cohorts

We present a model for tracking future task frequency distributions of individual adult worker honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) cohorts in a colony based on the composition of immatures at a specific time period. The user inputs the proportions of brood comb occupied by eggs, larvae, capped brood, or non-brood/empty cells. The model captured an experimental example where a brood comb is inserted into a surrogate colony and the individuals then emerge and express their adult lives. This model has clear application to many other experiments such as sublethal pesticide exposure. The model output is the expected proportion of cohort members engaged in a focal task at any given day post-insertion.