Expansion potential of invasive tree plants in ecoregions under climate change scenarios: an assessment of 54 species at a global scale

Climate change may increase expansion risk of invasive tree plants (ITPs) worldwide. Ecoregions are the power conservation tool for the management of ITPs. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between ITP expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change scenarios. Here, we provided a method to evaluate the expansion potential of 54 representative ITPs in ecoregions specifically under influences of the changing climate at the global scale. We found that climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration plays a positive role on the expansion of ITPs. We determined two of the most important ecoregion hotspots of ITP expansion potential, such as New Zealand and South Africa. In addition, ITPs were likely to have a large potential to expand in ecoregions of five different biomes, like temperate broadleaf and mixed forests. The potential expansion of ITPs would increase obviously in ecoregions of Boreal Forests/Taiga and Tundra. More importantly, the ecoregions of high elevation belonging to Tropical and Subtropical Coniferous Forests were expected to experience the higher expansion risk in the low GHG concentration scenario. Given our estimates of ITP expansion for ecoregions, management for the prevention and control for ITPs is urgent at the global scale.