Warmer temperatures promote shrub radial growth but not cover in the central Canadian Arctic

We assessed the response of Salix richardsonii, a deciduous shrub, to climate change by determining the combination of climatic factors that regulated its growth over the past half-century. We tested whether increasing arctic temperatures promote shrub growth and increased cover. We analyzed fifty-four stems (out of seventy sampled) from S. richardsonii shrubs near the Walker Bay research station in Nunavut, Canada (68°21′ N, 108°05′ W) and surveyed shrub cover in 1996 and 2010. We measured annual growth rings, removed the age-related pattern, and used a response function analysis to explore the climate–growth relationship. The standardized chronology was positively associated with mean July temperature, corroborating other evidence that summer temperature is an important driver of shrub radial growth. Basal area increment revealed a long-term increase in radial growth, although it has stabilized this century. Surveys showed no significant increase in shrub cover at Walker Bay from 1996 to 2010. Our results support a growing body of evidence that increased shrub growth does not necessarily translate into a prolonged increase in shrub cover. Instead, we conclude that the heterogeneity of the arctic shrub response to climate change may be associated with variation in the proximate factors limiting recruitment such as water table saturation and herbivory.